Predictions
Predictions
Political Prediction Project
As a now decade-long member of the “Expert Class,” whose livelihood depends upon credibility with the public, I propose to test it – mine and that of everyone who enjoys a major media platform to tell the public how the world works. To be able to explain is, by logical implication, also to be able to predict. In other words, an expert – whatever his or her field of inquiry – should be able to make inferences about this very field.
This is already done constantly in the popular press. Predictions about what party will win an election, how long an armed conflict or public health emergency will last, or about what sports team will win tonight’s big game. What is almost never done is any kind of meaningful follow up.
With the Political Prediction Project initiative, I aim to lead by example. Every prediction I have made since 2024 in a media outlet is listed here, along with a level of confidence the prediction was made in (“moderate” or “high”), and with the eventual outcome (when said outcome has come to be proven or disproven).
2026 Predictions
2026 Predictions
In progress
| No | Prediction | Level of confidence | Date (Media) | Result |
| 1 | It seems that the status quo will be maintained in Iran (i.e., the regime will manage to cling to power). | Moderate | January 15 (Radio-Canada / Live with Patrice Roy) | |
| 2 | "Almost certainly" the United States will not annex Greenland | High | January 21 (Radio-Canada / Live with Patrice Roy) | |
| 3 | I would be surprised if the 'little Liam' story in Minneapolis leads to de-escalation because both sides are convinced they will win politically (the following day, January 24: the 37-year-old man is shot). | Moderate | January 23 (Radio-Canada / Live with Patrice Roy) | |
| 4 | There could be 5, 10 or 15 more trilateral meetings about Ukraine and I still wouldn't believe we're close to an agreement. | High | January 23 (Radio-Canada / Live with Patrice Roy) | |
| 5 | Don't expect a 180-degree turn from Trump on migrant deportations despite a possible reversal in Minneapolis | Moderate | January 26 (Radio-Canada / Live with Patrice Roy) | |
| 6 | "Would be surprised" if the president got rid of Stephen Miller in the short term | Moderate | January 26 (Radio-Canada / Political Addicts) | |
| 7 | "Inflation will not be resolved" in the coming months in the United States, "that's a small prediction I'm making." | High | January 30 (Radio-Canada / Ça nous regarde) | |
| 8 | Trump's attempts to change/nationalize election rules ahead of the 2026 elections: "Almost certainly, the rules will remain the same." | High | February 4 (Radio-Canada / Political Fans) | |
| 9 | It's "almost guaranteed" that in a month, the majority of people will have moved on to something else (than the video of Trump portraying the Obamas as monkeys). | High | February 9 (Radio-Canada / Political Addicts) | |
| 10 | Is this the end of the story of tensions over immigration and deportations after ICE's withdrawal from Minneapolis? "It's very difficult to see a scenario" in which the story ends because the fundamental tension remains between a White House determined to move forward with the deportation program and Democratic authorities in several jurisdictions opposed to the idea. | High | February 12 (Radio-Canada / Political Fans) | |
| 11 | "Almost guaranteed" that there will be a partial shutdown of the US government at midnight | High | February 13 (Radio-Canada / Political Addicts) | |
| 12 | The conflict in Iran will not be over within a week, and certainly not to the advantage of the Americans. | High | March 12 (Radio-Canada Rimouski) | |
| 13 | The nuclear program will not be abolished with the form of the military operation in Iran (airstrikes only). | High | March 17 (Radio-Canada / Political Addicts) | |
| 14 | « Petite prédiction facile en ce qui me concerne, l’Iran ne va pas renoncer à son programme nucléaire » | High | 10 avril (Radio-Canada / En direct avec Sébastien Bovet) | |
| 15 | Le 25e amendement ne sera pas utilisé de façon fructueuse pour retirer Trump de ses fonctions | High | 10 avril (Radio-Canada / En direct avec Sébastien Bovet) | |
| 16 | Le blocus américain dans le détroit d’Ormuz ne fonctionnera pas | High | 13 avril (Radio-Canada Trois-Rivières) | |
| 17 | « Extrêmement improbable » que l’Iran accepte un moratoire de 5 as sur son programme nucléaire dans le court terme | High | 16 avril (Radio-Canada Sherbrooke) | |
| 18 | Les pourparlers au Pakistan ne produiront pas une entente donnant aux É-U ce qu’ils demandent de l’Iran | High | 16 avril (Radio-Canada Sudbury) | |
| 19 | La publication de Trump disant qu’il a fini d’être « M. Gentil » en Iran ne changera strictement rien | High | 29 avril (Radio-Canada / Mordus de politique) | |
| 20 | « Assez peu plausible » qu’on puisse rouvrir par la force le détroit d’Ormuz dans le court terme avec peu d’opposition iranienne | Moderate | 4 mai (Radio-Canada / Mordus de politique) | |
| 21 | À moins d’un enjeu de santé, attendez-vous à ce que Trump termine son mandat et ne soit pas destitué, même si les démocrates reprennent le contrôle du Congrès | High | 5 mai (FM93 / Bouchard en parle) | |
| 22 | Les républicains peineront à garder la majorité au Sénat; s’ils le font ce se sera à l’arrachée | High | 10 mai (L’actualité) | |
| 23 | Risque d’invasion chinoise de Taiwan ne figure pas au sommet de la liste des risques géopolitiques à court terme | Moderate | 13 mai (Radio-Canada / Mordus de politique) | |
| 24 | Annonce du fonds légal de 1,8 milliard $ pour les « victimes politiques » de la Justice sous Biden sera « presque assurément contesté devant les tribunaux » | High | 19 mai (Radio-Canada / TJ 18h) | |
| 25 | « Même avec seulement 10% du vote dépouillé, Thomas Massie se dirige clairement vers la défaite » | High | 19 mai (X) | |
| 26 | « Très probable » que le sénateur John Cornyn perde la primaire républicaine au Texas | High | 20 mai (Radio-Canada / Mordus de politique) | |
| 27 | Les nouveaux tarifs imposés via la Section 301 de la Loi de 1974 seront « probablement » contestés devant les tribunaux | Moderate | 3 juin (Radio-Canada / Mordus de politique) | |
| 28 | « Presque assurément on n’est pas sur une voie où [le fonds de 1,8 milliard $ d’indemnisation pour les partisans de Trump] va se concrétiser » | High | 4 juin (Radio-Canada / Mordus de politique) | |
| 29 | « Très probable » qu’on ait vas-et-viens et incertitude autour des tarifs douaniers jusqu’à la fin ou à peu près du mandat Trump | High | 5 juin (Radio-Canada / En direct avec Sébastien Bovet) | |
| 30 | Todd Blanche devra probablement avoir à faire face à des questions embarrassantes au sujet de Guislaine Maxwell lors du processus d’audience devant le Sénat
|
High | 5 juin (Radio-Canada / En direct avec Sébastien Bovet) | |
| 31 | « Marquez mes paroles : l’Alaska est en jeu cette année » | High | 5 juin (Radio-Canada / En direct avec Sébastien Bovet) | |
| 32 | « Probable » que Graham Platner gagne la primaire démocrate sénatoriale au Maine | High | 9 juin (Radio-Canada / En direct avec Patrice Roy) | |
| 33 | « Bonne chance » pour une entente satisfaisante pour les trois pays directement impliqués dans la guerre en Iran ; suis sceptique | High | 10 juin (Radio-Canada / En direct avec Patrice Roy) | |
| 34 | Deux options possibles en Iran : bourbier continue ou États-Unis signent entente reconnaissant implicitement qu’ils n’ont pas atteint les objectifs fixés à l’origine | High | 12 juin (Radio-Canada / En direct avec Sébastien Bovet) | |
| 35 | « Gage un petit deux » que l’administration Trump n’a pas encore dévoilé détails de l’entente avec l’Iran car elle suscitera une farouche opposition d’Israël | Moderate | 16 juin (Radio-Canada / Mordus de politique) |
2025 Predictions
2025 predictions
Total number of predicitions: 51
Number of predictions that turned out to be correct: 38 (75%)
Number of incorrect predictions: 2 (4%)
Number of predictions with uncertain outcomes: 11 (21%)
| No | Prediction | Level of confidence | Date (Media) | Result |
| 1 | Canada will not become the 51st state , period.e État, point barre. | High | January 7 (Radio-Canada / 6pm News) | Correct |
| 2 | Anything is possible, but even without announcing a price today, it would be 'extremely surprising' if Trump didn't end up imposing one. | High | January 20 (Radio-Canada / Special on the inauguration) | Correct |
| 3 | Democrats are already heavily favored to win a majority in the House of Representatives in 2026. | High | January 20 (Radio-Canada) | To be determined |
| 4 | Donald Trump's birthright citizenship decree will be overturned by the courts | High | January 21 (Radio-Canada) | To be determined(initial judgments in this regard) |
| 5 | It is "likely" that Robert F. Kennedy Jr. will be confirmed as Secretary of Health | High | January 29 (Radio-Canada / Political Addicts) | Correct |
| 6 | If Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Tulsi Gabbard are confirmed in their positions, it will be by the skin of their teeth because they will have essentially no Democratic support. | High | January 29 (Radio-Canada / Political Addicts) | Correct |
| 7 | Easy prediction: The more the US/Russia continues down a tougher path towards Russia, the less of a backlash there will be in the US against Trump. | High | February 17 (Radio-Canada / Political Addicts) | Correct (but Trump's position and the resulting reactions have changed and changed again since then) |
| 8 | It would be "surprising" if Russia were to accept a ceasefire with Western security guarantees in Ukraine (after the US/Ukraine meeting in Saudi Arabia). | Moderate | March 12 (Radio-Canada / Live news) | Correct |
| 9 | From a political point of view, Trump risks emerging unscathed from the "Signal Gate" scandal. | Moderate | March 26 (Radio-Canada / Political Addicts) | Correct |
| 10 | The two special (partial) elections in Florida will not be competitive (Republican candidates will win them easily). | High | March 31 (Radio-Canada / Political Addicts) | Correct |
| 11 | I would be "very surprised" if Trump backed down on the scale of the tariffs. | High | April 2 (Radio-Canada / Live with Patrice Roy) | Wrong (Trump backed down the following week, not entirely, but certainly on the scale) |
| 12 | I would be "surprised" if Trump fired Jay Powell as head of the Federal Reserve | Moderate | April 24 (Radio-Canada Rimouski) | Correct |
| 13 | It's a safe bet that Mike Waltz's departure from his position in the Trump administration will not be the last. | High | 1er mai (Radio-Canada Matane) | Wrong |
| 14 | It is almost guaranteed that the tariff issue will not be resolved following the Trump-Carney meeting (the next day) at the White House. | High | May 5 (Radio-Canada / 6pm News) | Correct |
| 15 | It is likely that nothing major will change in the Gaza crisis following Trump's trip to the Middle East. | High | May 13 (Radio-Canada / Live with Patrice Roy) | Correct |
| 16 | With 99.9999% certainty, Donald Trump will not be able to cancel the midterm elections. | High | May 16 (Radio-Canada / La parole aux mordus) | To be determined |
| 17 | Gavin Newsom is "virtually guaranteed" to run for president in 2028 | High | June 11 (Radio-Canada / Political Addicts) | To be determined |
| 18 | "I can guarantee you" that images of Senator Padilla will be broadcast on social media (MSNBC/FOX News) to galvanize the bases of both parties tonight regarding his altercation with Kristi Noem | High | June 12 (Radio-Canada / Ça nous regarde) | Correct |
| 19 | “Unlikely in the short term” that Iran will close the Strait of Hormuz in response to US strikes | Moderate | June 23 (Radio-Canada / 98.5 FM) | Correct |
| 20 | The current US/Israel/Iran conflict "is not over" despite the end of US military strikes (is likely to resume) | Moderate | 1er juillet (Podcast Sans filtre) | Correct |
| 21 | Trump's ultimatum to Putin regarding Ukraine "will not work" | High | 1er August 1 (Radio-Canada Trois-Rivières) | Correct |
| 22 | Anything is possible, but it would be surprising if Bill Clinton did not testify before Congress following his notice to appear in the Epstein case. | Moderate | August 5 (Radio-Canada / 6pm News) | Correct |
| 23 | The story of redrawing electoral boundaries in Texas is likely to end similarly to what happened 20 years ago: the Democrats who left the state will eventually return, and the new map will ultimately be adopted by the state legislature. | Moderate | August 7 (Radio-Canada Winnipeg) | Correct |
| 24 | Nothing major, of substance, will come out of the Trump-Putin summit in Alaska. The war will continue. | High | August 15 (FM93) | Correct |
| 25 | It is almost guaranteed that if Trump adopts Putin's position and demands concessions from Ukraine, the latter and its European allies will unite as a bloc in opposition. | High | August 15 (Radio-Canada/Special Broadcast) | Correct |
| 26 | (Before Trump/Zelensky & European leaders meeting): Even if the Europeans agree to deploy their military on Ukrainian soil and the Americans agree, the risk is that Russia will refuse to see soldiers from NATO member countries on the territory next to theirs. | Moderate | August 18 (Radio-Canada/Special Broadcast) | Correct |
| 27 | (Before the Trump/Zelensky meeting & European leaders) :“Very, very, very likely” that we will hear the Ukrainians today not start opening the door to concessions to Putin but try to convince President Trump of their position. | Moderate | August 18 (Radio-Canada/Special Broadcast) | Correct |
| 28 | “I would be surprised” if Donald Trump were granted the right to declare a state of emergency in any city he deems appropriate (but not impossible… unprecedented). | Moderate | August 26 (Radio-Canada/Political Enthusiasts) | Correct (court ruling invalidating its deployment of troops to Los Angeles) |
| 29 | Very likely that Zohran Mamdani will win New York mayoral election in November | High | September 19 (News) | Correct |
| 30 | Donald Trump's executive order on HB1 visas is "destined" to be challenged in court. | High | September 22 (Radio-Canada Edmonton) | Correct |
| 31 | "Has enormous doubts" that Trump will win the Nobel Prize | High | September 23 (Radio-Canada/Political Addicts) | Correct |
| 32 | It's "likely" that Trump will come back with another attack on Jimmy Kimmel | Moderate | September 24 (Radio-Canada/Political | Correct |
| 33 | "I agree with that" in response to the prediction that Trump would have helped to boost Jimmy Kimmel's ratings (in the following days). | Moderate | September 24 (Radio-Canada/Live with Patrice Roy) | Correct |
| 34 | It is "quite likely" that Trump's tariffs on movies and furniture will be challenged in court. | Moderate | September 29 (Radio-Canada/Political Addicts) | Correct |
| 35 | “I don’t believe” there will be a short-term solution to the crisis in Gaza despite the plan presented by Trump to Netanyahu today at the White House. | Moderate | September 29 (Radio-Canada Trois-Rivières) | Debatable (no end to the conflict, but a relative decrease in hostilities with a ceasefire that was more or less respected and the hostages released) |
| 36 | "Not anytime soon" that the crisis in Gaza will end (after Hamas announced it was ready to release the Israeli hostages) | Moderate | October 3 (Radio-Canada/Live with Sébastien Bovet) | Debatable (same) |
| 37 | A coup in the United States is "not on the cards in the short term." | Moderate | October 6 (Radio-Canada/On va se le dire) | To be determined |
| 38 | The Israel/Hamas agreement on the release of hostages will likely not have a major domestic political impact in the US, particularly on President Trump's approval rating. | Moderate | October 10 (Radio-Canada/Live with Sébastien Bovet) | Correct |
| 39 | Theoretically, there is an upcoming Trump-Putin summit in Hungary to resolve the Russo-Ukrainian conflict, but in practice it is almost impossible. | High | October 17 (Noovo) | Correct |
| 40 | Trump's change of attitude following his call with Vladimir Putin does not mean that he is now "in the Russian camp," and is likely to change his position. | Moderate | October 20 (Radio-Canada/Live with Patrice Roy) | Correct (three days later, Trump announces new sanctions against Russia) |
| 41 | Can the Democratic Party unite around a leader? Answer: Not until at least the midterm elections. | High | October 20 (Radio-Canada/Live with Patrice Roy) | Correct |
| 42 | The most likely scenario from the Republican side is that Trump will not be on the ballot in 2028 and that he will send mixed signals between now and the election regarding a possible candidacy. | Moderate | October 27 (Radio-Canada/Political Enthusiasts) | To be determined |
| 43 | "No doubt" that the US government shutdown will break the record for longevity | High | November 3 (Radio-Canada Abitibi) | Correct |
| 44 | "I'll bet you a small 2" that people demanding more transparency won't be satisfied even after the vote on releasing the documents (particularly because of everything that will be withheld/redacted); many questions will remain unanswered. | Moderate | November 18 (98.5 FM) | Correct |
| 45 | How long before the 'Epstein files' are released publicly? "At least a few weeks, not before Thanksgiving" (November 27) and next month (December). | High | November 20 (Radio-Canada/Live with Patrice Roy) | Correct |
| 46 | What can we expect from the Trump-Mamdani meeting later today? With Trump, it could go in any direction, but I think the starting point will be cordiality. They have no choice but to talk; there's a chasm between campaign rhetoric and the constraints of governance. | Moderate | November 21 (FM93) | Correct |
| 47 | Despite the American "peace plan," the war in Ukraine, at least in the short term, will continue. | High | November 24 (Radio-Canada Winnipeg) | Correct |
| 48 | I would be "astonished" if the courts recognized President Trump's power to overturn pardons or laws signed under Biden by "autopen" | High | November 28 (Radio-Canada/Live with Sébastien Bovet) | To be determined |
| 49 | The cost of living will continue to be a political issue for the Republican Party between now and the 2026 midterm elections. | High | December 10 (Radio-Canada/Political Addicts) | To be determined |
| 50 | The attempt in Congress to impeach Robert Kennedy Jr. is doomed to failure. | High | December 10 (Radio-Canada/Political Addicts) | Correct |
| 51 | There will be no lasting peace between Russia and Ukraine in 2026 | High | December 19 (Radio-Canada/Political Addicts) | To be determined |
2024 Predictions
2024 Predictions
Total number of predictions: 73
Number of predictions that turned out to be correct: 64 (88%)
Number of incorrect predictions: 4
Number of predictions with uncertain outcomes: 5
| No | Prediction | Level of confidence | Date (Media) | Result |
| 1 | Donald Trump will win the Iowa caucuses | High | January 15 (Radio-Canada Sherbrooke) | Correct |
| 2 | If he finishes 3rd in Iowa, Ron DeSantis will withdraw from the racee en Iowa, Ron DeSantis se retirera de la course | High | January 15 (Radio-Canada Toronto) | N/A |
| 3 | Nikki Haley will never catch up to Trump in the race for the nomination. | High | January 27 (News) | Correct |
| 4 | The immigration agreement will likely fail to pass both houses of Congress. | High | February 5 (Radio-Canada / Political Addicts) | Correct |
| 5 | Joe Biden will not face any new major contenders in the Democratic primaries. | High | February 9 (Radio-Canada / Ça nous regarde) | Correct |
| 6 | It is more likely than unlikely that Joe Biden will not participate in the three 90-minute presidential debates currently scheduled for September and October. | Moderate | February 12 (Radio-Canada Toronto) | Correct |
| 7 | It's not likely that Russia will launch an armed conflict against Canada anytime soon, and even less likely that the U.S. will be called upon to defend Canada in such a conflict. | High | February 12 (FM93 / Trudeau-Landry) | Correct |
| 8 | It's 'madness' to think that the House of Representatives will adopt the Senate's plan for Ukraine as is, without tightening the border with Mexico. | High | February 13 (Radio-Canada / Political Addicts) | Correct |
| 9 | Nikki Haley is going to be beaten (humiliatingly) by Trump in the South Carolina primary | High | February 19 (FM93 / Trudeau-Landry) | Correct |
| 10 | It is likely that (if she goes) Nikki Haley will lose all the states that vote on Super Tuesday. | High | February 26 (Radio-Canada Toronto) | N/A (updated February 4: Haley will lose all states except possibly Vermont; has lost them all except Vermont) |
| 11 | Reading between the lines, it's likely that Nikki Haley will retire quickly after Super Tuesday. | Moderate | March 4 (Radio-Canada) | Correct |
| 12 | Barring the equivalent of a miracle, Trump will be the Republican nominee and will appear on every ballot. | High | March 5 (Radio-Canada Sherbrooke) | Correct |
| 13 | The only suspense in terms of Super Tuesday results will be in Vermont. | High | March 5 (Radio-Canada Sherbrooke) | Correct |
| 14 | Nikki Haley will be mathematically eliminated by the end of the month (of March). | High | March 5 (Radio-Canada / 24/60) | Correct |
| 15 | It is impossible (not just improbable) that an independent candidate will win the presidency in 2024. It will be the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate. | High | March 8 (Radio-Canada / La parole aux mordus) | Correct |
| 16 | Contrary to the fears of many, I do not believe we are on the verge of a world war (not in the way the major powers would act and speak). | Moderate | April 19 (Radio-Canada / Live with Patrice Roy) | To be determined |
| 17 | It is 'likely' that the aid plan for Ukraine will pass the House of Representatives | High | April 19 (Radio-Canada / Live with Patrice Roy) | Correct |
| 18 | If Trump is re-elected, the federal charges against him will almost certainly fall apart. | High | April 25 (Radio-Canada / TJ18h) | Correct |
| 19 | If Trump is elected, he will appoint an attorney general who is completely loyal to him. | High | April 26 (Radio-Canada / Political Fans) | Correct (Matt Gaetz) |
| 20 | The three decisive states for November will be Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. | High | May 7 (News) | Correct |
| 21 | The Trump campaign will talk more about Trump's criminal guilty verdict than the Biden campaign. | Moderate | May 30 (Radio-Canada / 24/60) | Correct |
| 22 | Between the verdict and the debate, the second option is more likely to have an impact on the race.e est plus susceptible de pouvoir causer un impact dans la course | Moderate | May 31 (Radio-Canada / Political Addicts) | Correct |
| 23 | I would be surprised if the verdict has a huge impact on voting intentions. | Moderate | May 31 (Radio-Canada / Live with Patrice Roy) | Correct |
| 24 | Trump will say that Biden will lead to World War III during the debatee guerre mondiale lors du débat | High | June 27 (Radio-Canada / Question Period) | Correct |
| 25 | Barring a major upset, Biden and Harris will be the Democratic ticket | Moderate | June 27 (Radio-Canada / Question Period) | Wrong |
| 26 | I could be wrong, but I doubt the debate will have a dramatic impact on the polls… | Moderate | June 28 (X) | Correct |
| 27 | …and that Biden withdraws (prediction reinforced a week later) | Moderate | June 28 (X) | Wrong |
| 28 | We should have a better idea of what happens next on the Democratic side in a week (re: Biden's situation) | Moderate | July 3 (Radio-Canada Sherbrooke) | Wrong |
| 29 | Doubts that the assassination attempt against Trump will have a significant impact on voting intentions | Moderate | July 14 (Radio-Canada 1st channel with Isabelle Craig) | Correct |
| 30 | "Has enormous doubts" that Trump will win the Nobel Prize | High | September 23 (Radio-Canada/Political Addicts) | Correct |
| 31 | There will be no major leap forward (like Clinton's '92) for Trump after the Republican Convention. | High | July 18 (Radio-Canada / TJ18h) | Correct |
| 32 | It is very likely that Kamala Harris will be the Democratic presidential nominee | High | July 21 (Radio-Canada/Special Broadcast) | Correct |
| 33 | I expect Joe Biden to remain very unpopular until the end of his term.
challenged in court |
Moderate | July 21 (Radio-Canada / TJ21h) | Correct |
| 34 | The major Democratic figures who have not yet endorsed Kamala Harris (e.g., Barack Obama) will either rally behind her or stand apart. | Moderate | July 22 (Radio-Canada / 6pm News) | Correct |
| 35 | It is 'almost inconceivable' that Joe Biden's proposed reform of the Court will be adopted. | High | July 30 (Radio-Canada / L'Info) | Correct |
| 36 | Kamala Harris will not choose Barack Obama as her running mate. That will not happen. | High | August 2 (Radio-Canada / Question Period) | Correct |
| 37 | There is no political appetite in the US to end the CAN-US-Mexico Agreement during the next presidential term. | High | August 2 (Radio-Canada / Question Period) | To be determined |
| 38 | It's possible, but it would be surprising if Kamala Harris chose anyone other than Josh Shapiro (as her number 2). | High | August 2 (Noovo 5pm) | Wrong |
| 39 | It is likely that Kamala Harris will take the lead by the end of August. | Moderate | August 4 (Le Devoir) | Correct |
| 40 | Tim Walz's electoral impact in November is likely to be minimal. | Moderate | August 22 (Radio-Canada / Live with Patrice Roy) | Correct |
| 41 | The outcome of the November election will be close. | High | August 28 (News) | Correct |
| 42 | It's almost unthinkable that Trump will manage to get more than 50% of the popular vote. | High | August 28 (News) | Correct |
| 43 | It's hard to believe that Harris won't eventually give at least one more interview, just this one (after the first one with Tim Walz on CNN). | High | August 28 (Radio-Canada / Political Addicts) | Correct |
| 44 | The Harris-Walz interview won't cost them any points, but they won't gain any either. | High | August 29 (Noovo 10pm) | Correct |
| 45 | While it is too early to predict who will win, this is already likely: on November 5, the level of racial polarization will be at its lowest level since at least the turn of the millennium. In other words, the gap between the vote of whites and ethnic minorities will be at its smallest. | High | September 4 (News) | Correct |
| 46 | And the gap between the votes of men and women will be smaller than that between those, of all sexes, holding a university degree and those who do not. | High | September 4 (News) | Correct |
| 47 | And there you have it. First question, Kamala Harris doesn't answer it and gives a scripted response. Barring any surprises, this will be the dynamic of the evening. | High | September 10 (X) | Correct |
| 48 | It should come as no surprise if the impact of the debate is minor. | Moderate | September 11 (Radio-Canada/Political Enthusiasts) | Correct |
| 49 | I would be astonished if anyone could confidently predict who will win, whether it's 1, 2, or 6 weeks before the election. | High | September 23 (Radio-Canada / Live with Patrice Roy) | Correct |
| 50 | Some pollsters are getting it wrong. I don't see a plausible scenario in which Harris wins the national popular vote by 6 and loses Arizona by 5. | High | September 23 (Radio-Canada / Live with Patrice Roy) | Correct |
| 51 | We should expect more Democratic elected officials to come out and demand the departure of New York Mayor Eric Adams (after AOC). | Moderate | September 26 (Radio-Canada Toronto) | Correct |
| 52 | There is no end in sight to the conflict in Ukraine in the short term. Anyone who believes that pouring billions more dollars into Ukraine will magically make Vladimir Putin give up Crimea is living in a fantasy world. | Moderate | September 27 (Radio-Canada / Live with Patrice Roy) | Correct |
| 53 | I guarantee you that we won't have a scenario in which Harris wins Nevada by 7 points and loses Arizona by 6. | High | September 27 (Radio-Canada / Live with Patrice Roy) | Correct |
| 54 | There will be recriminations leveled at Trump and his team for campaigning in New Mexico and Virginia if Trump loses the election | High | October 31 (Radio-Canada Abitibi) | Correct |
| 55 | Barring any changes or surprises, Trump should be considered the slight favorite to win Arizona | Moderate | October 31 (Radio-Canada / Live with Patrice Roy) | Correct |
| 56 | The Selzer poll in Iowa is wrong: Harris will not win the state | High | November 4 (Radio-Canada / Political Addicts) | Correct |
| 57 | Trump will come closer to winning Nevada than in 2020, or he will win it. | High | November 5 (Radio-Canada / Political Addicts) | Correct |
| 58 | Trump will win Florida | High | November 5 (Radio-Canada / Live with Patrice Roy) | Correct |
| 59 | "Not only will Trump win Florida, but he will win it by a larger margin than four years ago." | High | November 6 (Radio-Canada / Election Night) | Correct |
| 60 | Trump "will almost certainly have the best result in Florida since Bush Sr. in '88" | High | November 6 (Radio-Canada / Election Night) | Correct |
| 61 | Trump will "probably" win Miami-Dade County | Moderate | November 6 (Radio-Canada / Election Night) | Correct |
| 62 | Donald Trump "must be considered the favorite to win Georgia" | Moderate | November 6 (Radio-Canada / Election Night) | Correct |
| 63 | "If Ms. Harris manages to win Michigan, it's going to be a close call" (more difficult than for Biden in 2020) | High | November 6 (Radio-Canada / Election Night) | Correct |
| 64 | “At 9:44 p.m. (…) there is a favorite (to win the Electoral College), his name is Donald Trump.” | Moderate | November 6 (Radio-Canada / Election Night) | Correct |
| 65 | At 10:11 PM, Trump "is the favorite to win Pennsylvania" | Moderate | November 6 (Radio-Canada / Election Night) | Correct |
| 66 | Trump "will win" North Carolina by a larger margin than in 2016 | High | November 6 (Radio-Canada / Election Night) | Correct |
| 67 | "No guarantee, but Trump should be considered the favorite in Nevada." | Moderate | November 6 (Radio-Canada / Election Night) | Correct |
| 68 | "The Republicans will win the Senate." | High | November 6 (Radio-Canada / Election Night) | Correct |
| 69 | It is 'very likely' that Republican senators will vote against Trump's cabinet nominations, such as Matt Gaetz. | High | November 14 (Radio-Canada / Ça nous regarde) | Correct |
| 70 | It's unlikely the Senate will torpedo half or even most of Trump's nominations. Matt Gaetz's withdrawal could help other controversial candidates get confirmed. | Moderate | November 20 (Radio-Canada / Ça nous regarde) | Correct |
| 71 | It is likely that it is only a matter of time before the second federal case (that of the Mar a Lago documents) is withdrawn (after the withdrawal of the one concerning the 2020 elections). | Moderate | November 25 (Radio-Canada / Live with Patrice Roy) | Correct |
| 72 | I would be astonished if Trump did not pardon the January 6th insurgents early in his second term. | High | November 25 (Radio-Canada / Live with Patrice Roy) | Correct |
| 73 | Kamala Harris's national political career is over. | High | December 16 (X) | To be determined |